Fuck peak oil "My guess is virtually 90% of the oil industry is assuming that $70 oil is not going to last more than a few years," according to Adam Sieminski, the chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank ... he guesses that most oil companies are projecting crude will fetch $40 a barrel plus inflation over the long-term.
The article goes into the whys ... right now 35% of oil discovered makes it to market, the rest stays in the ground. Oil companies have gotten better and better at extracting it, and they're counting on continued improvement.
Wall Street looks like it's betting on more of a peak oil scenario, though.
corporate checks and balances?
I think there's a central but seldom-stated disagreement in arguments about markets and corporate power: to what degree do the interests of corporations coincide? I think most - well, most liberals anyway, would argue that the areas in which the majority of corporations share a common interest should be carefully watched in a democracy. Liberals that are extremely suspicious of corporations often appear to believe that firms' disagreements are superficial, and that on important issues they operate monolithically. Market-friendly liberals like me disagree, and while I could come up with examples in both directions, it seems like something that could be systematically addressed.
Tons of statistics in a bunch of categories, with different visualization options. Very interesting feature that shows you which variables are correlated with the variable you're looking at. Shame you can't look at things over time.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Home & Professional Page
"Book-Jacket Style Summary: NNT is an essayist, belletrist, (literary) flâneur, researcher, and practitioner of uncertainty (“mathematical trader”) focusing on the attributes of unexpected events, with a focus on extreme deviations, the “Black Swans” (i.e. outliers), their unpredictability, and our general inability to forecast."
Also, coo-coo for cocoa puffs. I mean that in a nice way.
Finding an Office in New York City
This has nothing to do with anything (I would like to find an office in New York, but not as the person on the lease). But making New York real estate seem manageable is a feat.
'Here's another reason you need a lawyer. The lawyer can say to the landlord, "Whaddaya mean if we're 3 days late on the rent we get evicted? We want the right to be 15 days late!" When your lawyer says this, no offense is taken. He's just the lawyer. But if you, the tenant, try to say it, the landlord will say, "What, are you planning to be late on the rent?"'